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The secret of the Republican victory in 2024 is hiding in plain sight

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Many Republicans will be surprised to learn that Election Day 2024 will take place well before November 5.

In fact, it hurts the Republican cause – and the elections of President Donald Trump and House and Senate Republicans – to focus exclusively on November 5.

The first election dates are September 16 in Pennsylvania and then September 20 in Minnesota and South Dakota. The next election days are September 23 in Mississippi and September 24 in Missouri. There are 43 other states and the District of Columbia that continue with their early voting dates. Only Alabama and New Hampshire do not have early voting.

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Here’s an example of why this matters: In 2022, the Republican Senate campaign in Pennsylvania focused on Election Day in November. The campaign didn’t start advertising until well after early voting began. As a result, 40% of Pennsylvanians had already cast their ballots before the first major Republican ad aired.

This pattern was not unique to that race.

Republicans have a history of failing to get voting done early. This has an aggravating negative effect.

First, it means that Republican turnout on Election Day must be dramatically higher to offset the number of Democratic votes already at the polls. Second, and probably most importantly, it means that Republican candidates have failed to focus on low propensity voters: those who are least likely to vote.

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Democrats have focused on early voting largely because they want to be able to identify everyone who hasn’t turned up yet. That way, they can focus on phone calls, direct mail, text messages, and even visits to remind voters to vote. They continue like this until people vote and their name is removed from the list.

Republicans have a history of failing to get voting done early.

This lengthy campaign approach has shown over the past decade that close elections are more likely to be won than focusing on the official federally designated election day.

The Republican Party and campaign systems should focus on winning the first day of early voting, because it will give them the organization and momentum to continue turnout. (GEORGE FREY/AFP via Getty Images)

Getting Republicans to stop focusing on Election Day – and their reluctance to vote early – is an important task. Achieving it in one year will require a truly focused, determined and enthusiastic effort.

The fact is, for all the talk about “Bank the Vote,” it had no discernible impact on the special election for New York’s 3rd District. Republicans decisively lost early voting and simply couldn’t win it back on Election Day. It was not due to any conspiracy. On election day there was a major snow storm that reduced turnout. The Democrats already had an advantage in the votes, so they were fine.

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Changing Republican sentiment, getting people to vote early, and creating a new commitment to winning the vote throughout the campaign will require new focus and determination.

Every time we focus on Election Day, we undermine and weaken our chances of winning early voting.

As my friend and former US ambassador to Luxembourg, Randy Evans, suggested in a recent article, Republicans should start by focusing on “winning the first day of voting.”

As Evans wrote: “This means identifying the first day of voting of all types in each state and D.C.; educating that day’s Republican voters with an explanation of how to vote that day; setting a goal of winning that day’s vote with compromises of Republican voters to show up and win on day one.

Evans then suggested that Republicans should continue to build momentum by focusing on “winning the first week of voting.”

As he put it: “To build momentum, this requires thorough tracking of everyone who commits to voting on the first day and doesn’t so we can win the first week. It also means working hard to build sustainable momentum during early elections.” and absent.” vote beyond the first day and the first week.

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He then suggested systematically tracking voters in each state until the official election days. According to Evans’ theory, the cumulative effect of this approach on winning early voting should culminate in winning all pre-election activity and, of course, Election Day voting (which should be a simple cleanup day). .

The Republican National Committee should establish a set of 51 Election Day countdown clocks that include periods from early voting to Election Day for each state and the District of Columbia.

President Trump and all Republican candidates should start emphasizing early voting.

Party and campaign systems should focus on winning the first day of early voting, because it will give them the organization and momentum to continue functioning based on turnout.

Conservative radio and television hosts and key activists should be encouraged to stop focusing on Election Day and instead focus on winning early voting in every state. Every time we focus on Election Day, we undermine and weaken our chances of winning early voting.

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A serious victory on day one will significantly increase the likelihood of Republican victories in 2024. And it is the right response to the campaign world that Democrats have built.

The time to change is now.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM NEWT GINGRICH


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