Fox News Power Rankings: All eyes could be on Omaha this November

Former President Trump maintains his slight lead in the latest Fox News Power Rankings, which places Trump with 251 electoral college votes to President Biden’s 241.
The forecast continues to see the race coming down to four battleground states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada.
Four other states, including Michigan, Minnesota, Georgia and North Carolina, are also very competitive.
But there is a change in a state that could prove essential to Trump’s victory.
Polls show a close and stable race

Trump leads Biden by one point in latest Fox News poll; a result that is within the margin of error.
Most high-quality polls since the last forecast show the same result: a lead of one or two points for either Biden or Trump, within each poll’s margin of error.
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However, it is too early to say whether Trump’s conviction in a criminal trial for falsified business records will affect this race. vote Polling conducted by Marist the week before the verdict suggests that will not be the case.
Trump is leading in the battleground states, and especially in the closest Sun Belt states (Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada), by mid-to-high single-digit margins.
The race is closest in the Rust Belt states (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), where Trump’s leads are typically within one or two points.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr remains a wild card in this race. He received the support of 17% of registered voters in a marquette survey two weeks ago.
He gets about the same amount of support from both sides in most polls, although Republican voters tend to view him more favorably.
Why Trump could win
Trump’s consistent leads are good news for the former president’s campaign.
He is making significant inroads with traditionally Democratic groups; particularly young, Hispanic and black voters.
like the new Fox News Power Rankings Issue Tracker As revealed today, voters say Trump is the right man to handle the economy and the border, two of the three major issues in this election. Voters also say Trump is in better physical and mental shape to take office.

Biden has a more modest lead on abortion policy and voters say he is more honest than Trump.
Biden’s political problems are unlikely to go away before November: Prices are much higher under his administration, many more illegal immigrants will enter the country, and he will continue to age.
And although Democrats argue that voters are “just waking up” to this election, this is the first rematch in 70 years. Voters are very familiar with these candidates and what they represent.
Why Biden could win
On election night, the only math that matters is the race for the 270 electoral college votes.
In an election without surprises in other states, Biden can retain the presidency by holding Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
There is also reason to think that Biden’s support among young and minority voters could strengthen as November approaches.
As analysis of a Fox News poll recently showed, “In April 2020, Biden had 66% among blacks and 52% among Hispanics. He ultimately won both groups with much larger percentages, 91% and 63%, respectively, according to the November 2020 Fox Poll. News Voter Analysis.”
Close elections also come down to turnout.

Biden has strong support from college-educated voters, who are a very reliable group of voters, and he is leading on the abortion issue.
That issue not only figures as a top deciding issue in the latest Fox poll, but it is very likely to appear separately on the ballot in Arizona, which this forecast considers a volatile state.
Nebraska’s 2nd District Could Be Key to Trump’s Victory
Biden can win another four years if he holds the Rust Belt states and there are no other surprises.
How would it be a surprise?
The most likely candidate is Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.

If Biden holds Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and all the other states he won in the 2020 election, the incumbent president will take home 270 electoral college votes. That is the minimum number of votes needed to win the election directly.
One of the votes that make up those 270 is Nebraska’s 2nd district.
(Maine and Nebraska are the only states that award electoral college votes to both the winner of the statewide vote and the winner of the same vote but separated by congressional district.)
If Trump wins that district, then it will be a tied race with 269 electoral college votes each.
Ties are resolved in the U.S. House of Representatives, where each state gets one vote. If Republicans control a majority of seats in a state, then a Republican member will cast the vote for that state.
Assuming the electoral college votes in accordance with the results, and that Republicans do not suffer massive losses in the House in the next election, and that the voter in every Republican-led state supports Trump, then he would be the likely victor in a tie in the electoral college. .
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Nebraska’s 2nd District has voted for two Democratic and two Republican presidents in the last four elections:
- In 2020, Biden won with 51.95% to Trump’s 45.45%.
- In 2016, Trump won with 47.16% to Clinton’s 44.92%.
- In 2012, Romney won with 52.85% to Obama’s 45.70%.
- In 2008, Obama won with 49.97% to McCain’s 48.75%.

Omaha and its suburbs make up a significant portion of the district’s population, and that city has a disproportionately high percentage of college-educated people, making the district the most favorable territory for Biden in a heavily red state.
Both parties are keeping an eye on this part of the state and this forecaster expects them to invest heavily in it as November approaches.
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Nebraska moves from Probably D to Lean D in this forecast.
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