Ohio elections show Democratic advantage among key voters

Tuesday’s special election in Ohio to fill a vacant seat in the U.S. House of Representatives showed a Democratic advantage among highly engaged voters, with the district swinging about 20 points in favor of Democrats, compared to previous elections.

While Republican state Sen. Michael Rulli defeated his Democratic opponent Michael Kripchak by just under 10 points in the special election for Ohio’s 6th Congressional District, it was a disappointing margin in a district that had been won by outgoing Rep. Bill Johnson, R-Ohio. ., by more than 30 points just two years ago.

“It looks like State Senator Michael Rulli (R) is on track to significantly underperform in tonight’s #OH06 special election,” Cook Political Report Senior Editor Dave Wasserman said on X as the results came in, noting that former President Donald Trump had carried the same district by 29 points in 2020.

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The result could be seen as confusing to many political observers, as Ohio is a state that has trended more Republican in recent elections and the Sixth Congressional District has been a safe haven for the GOP for more than a decade.

But the result highlights a growing problem for Republicans nationally ahead of this year’s general election, Wasserman says, noting that Democrats have a growing enthusiasm advantage as November approaches.

“Turnout in #OH06 looks abysmal and as we’ve seen in tons of specials/polls, Democrats have a growing lead among the most engaged voters,” Wasserman said on X.

Ohio State Senator Michael Rulli. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

Wasserman’s comments come on the heels of Cook Political Report’s “swing state polling project” last month, which examined the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and divided voters. voters in three groups.

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The first group, whom the report called “high engagement” voters, includes those who “voted in four of the last four federal elections or voted in the 2022 midterm elections if they registered after 2020.” The mid-tier includes voters whom the report called “medium/low turnout” voters, or those who “skipped at least one of the last four federal elections.” The latter group contained new registrants from 2020, which may include those who moved between states.

The report found a growing “turnout gap” in presidential preferences, with President Biden maintaining a four-point lead among “high engagement” voters, or those most likely to vote on Election Day. Meanwhile, Trump had a 10-point lead among “low-medium turnout” voters and newly registered voters.

This gap could play a role in hotly contested swing states, where “high engagement voters” make up the majority of the electorate.

President Joe Biden speaks at a campaign event at Pullman Yards on March 9, 2024, in Atlanta, Georgia. (Megan Varner/Getty Images)

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Ohio, which has traditionally been a swing state but which Trump won handily in the last two elections, appears to once again lean toward Trump in November. According to the latest Real Clear Politics polling average, the former president has a 10-point lead over Biden in the state.